Malaga vs Real Sociedad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Malagavs
Real SociedadThe model puts Real Sociedad at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Sociedad.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malaga have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Sociedad is priced at 2.21.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Malaga at 29%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Real Sociedad at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Real Sociedad. Malaga is priced at 3.17. The draw is priced at 3.5. Real Sociedad is priced at 2.21.
Malaga have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Sociedad have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Malaga average 0 goals per game this season. Malaga average 47% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Malaga or Real Sociedad?
Our model rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Malaga wins, 5 draws, 6 Real Sociedad wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18:8 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 8 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Celta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing de Santander | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:17 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:12 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.