Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Casa Piavs
Santa ClaraThe model puts Santa Clara at 50%. The model leans toward Santa Clara. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Santa Clara.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Santa Clara is priced at 1.92.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 21 | 9 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Casa Pia at 22%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Santa Clara at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Santa Clara. Casa Pia is priced at 4.34. The draw is priced at 3.3. Santa Clara is priced at 1.92.
Casa Pia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Santa Clara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Casa Pia average 0 goals per game this season. Casa Pia average 36% possession. Santa Clara average 1 goals per game this season. Santa Clara average 40% possession.
The model gives 23% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Casa Pia or Santa Clara?
Our model rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Casa Pia wins, 2 draws, 3 Santa Clara wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 |  Braga | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 |  Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.