Everton vs Newcastle United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Evertonvs
Newcastle UnitedThe model puts Everton at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Everton.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Everton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Everton have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Everton is priced at 2.285.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Everton at 43%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Newcastle United at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Everton is priced at 2.285. The draw is priced at 3.38. Newcastle United is priced at 3.136.
Everton have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Newcastle United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Everton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Everton average 1 goals per game this season. Everton average 63% possession. Newcastle United average 1 goals per game this season. Newcastle United average 63% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Everton or Newcastle United?
Our model rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Everton wins, 3 draws, 6 Newcastle United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.