Friendlies. National Teams

Mexico vs Colombia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Mexicovs

Colombia

Our predictionMexico to win

Model score: Low · 7/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Mexico at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Colombia (3-3-9).

Win probabilities

1 · Mexico36%

Draw27%

2 · Colombia36%

1 · MexicoDraw2 · Colombia

Full team comparison →

Recent form

MexicoLWWWW

ColombiaLWDWW

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-010.2%

0-19.1%

2-18.6%

1-27.7%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Mexico

Colombia

Expected goals

1.37Mexico

1.23Colombia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Mexico Colombia

Key points

Mexico have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Colombia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mexico have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mexico is priced at 2.568.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Mexico win2.57Fair (-0.6%)

Double chanceMexico or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	9	6	2
1	10	13	8	3
2	7	9	5	2
3	3	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Colombia2.77+1.8%

BTTSYes1.77+0.4%

BTTSNo1.95-0.4%

1X2Mexico2.57-0.6%

1X2Draw3.32-1.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Mexico at 36%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Colombia at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Mexico is priced at 2.568. The draw is priced at 3.32. Colombia is priced at 2.765.

Mexico have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Colombia have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Mexico have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Colombia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →