Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leyton Orientvs
Plymouth ArgyleThe model puts Plymouth Argyle at 48%. The model leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Plymouth Argyle score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Plymouth Argyle creates more chances (9 vs 17 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Leyton Orient controls more of the ball (49% vs 40%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leyton Orient have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leyton Orient have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Plymouth Argyle is priced at 2.01.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leyton Orient at 27%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Plymouth Argyle at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Leyton Orient is priced at 3.4. The draw is priced at 3.6. Plymouth Argyle is priced at 2.01.
Leyton Orient have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Plymouth Argyle have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leyton Orient have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Leyton Orient average 1 goals per game this season. Leyton Orient average 49% possession. Plymouth Argyle average 2 goals per game this season. Plymouth Argyle average 40% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leyton Orient or Plymouth Argyle?
Our model rates Plymouth Argyle as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Leyton Orient wins, 1 draws, 8 Plymouth Argyle wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. League One| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bradford City | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7:4 | 15 |
| 2 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 14 |
| 3 |  Stockport County | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 5 |  Cambridge United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 6 |  Huddersfield Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:6 | 12 |
| 7 |  Burton Albion | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 12 |
| 8 |  Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6:8 | 12 |
| 9 |  Reading | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 11 |
| 10 |  Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 14 |  Leicester City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 15 |  Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 16 |  Luton Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:12 | 8 |
| 19 |  Bromley | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Notts County | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 21 |  Doncaster Rovers | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 22 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 23 |  Peterborough United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4:13 | 5 |
| 24 |  Wigan Athletic | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:12 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.