Netherlands vs Serbia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Netherlandsvs
SerbiaThe model puts Netherlands at 80%. The model leans toward Netherlands. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Netherlands are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Serbia are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Netherlands will be without Brobbey, Wieffer M., Gakpo, Geertruida, de Jong, de Ligt, Depay, Kluivert, Malen, van Hecke J.P..
- Netherlands take 22 shots per game.
- Netherlands average 53% possession.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 5 | ||||
| 1 | 30 | 6 | ||||
| 2 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 7 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Netherlands take 22 shots per game. Netherlands average 53% possession. Serbia take 1 shots per game. Serbia average 26% possession.
Netherlands have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Serbia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Netherlands will be without Brobbey, Wieffer M., Gakpo, Geertruida, de Jong, de Ligt, Depay, Kluivert, Malen, van Hecke J.P.. Serbia will be without Ivanovic, Milosavljevic, Milosevic, Milenkovic N..
Netherlands is priced at 1.175. The market leans toward Netherlands.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Netherlands or Serbia?
Our model rates Netherlands as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Netherlands vs Serbia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Netherlands wins, 0 draws, 2 Serbia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.