Wales vs Denmark: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Walesvs
DenmarkThe model puts Denmark at 52%. The model leans toward Denmark. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Denmark.
- −The head-to-head record favours Wales (5-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wales have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Denmark is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Wales at 27%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Denmark at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Denmark. Wales is priced at 3.68. The draw is priced at 4.24. Denmark is priced at 1.83.
Wales have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Denmark have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wales or Denmark?
Our model rates Denmark as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wales vs Denmark?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 5 Wales wins, 0 draws, 2 Denmark wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.