Wales vs Denmark: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Walesvs
DenmarkThe model puts Denmark at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Wales.
- −The head-to-head record favours Wales (5-0-2).
- +Wales are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Denmark are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Wales have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wales have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Wales will be without Lawlor, Broadhead N., Darlow, Davies I., Colvill, Rodon, Wilson Ha..
- Denmark will be without Dorgu, Gronbaek, Osula, Damsgaard, Jensen M., Norgaard C., Eriksen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Wales at 31%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Denmark at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Denmark. Wales is priced at 3.62. The draw is priced at 3.48. Denmark is priced at 2.04.
Wales have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Denmark have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Wales have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Denmark have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Wales average 2 goals per game this season. Wales average 50% possession. Denmark average 2 goals per game this season. Denmark average 51% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wales or Denmark?
Our model rates Denmark as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wales vs Denmark?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 5 Wales wins, 0 draws, 2 Denmark wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.