Evesham United vs Chippenham Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Evesham Unitedvs
Chippenham TownThe model puts Evesham United at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Evesham United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Chippenham Town (2-2-7).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Evesham United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chippenham Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Evesham United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Evesham United is priced at 2.345.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Evesham United at 42%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Chippenham Town at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Evesham United is priced at 2.345. The draw is priced at 3.91. Chippenham Town is priced at 2.699.
Evesham United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chippenham Town have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Evesham United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Chippenham Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Evesham United or Chippenham Town?
Our model rates Evesham United as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Evesham United vs Chippenham Town?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 2 Evesham United wins, 2 draws, 7 Chippenham Town wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. South| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 19 |
| 2 |  Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:12 | 14 |
| 5 |  Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 6 |  Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:8 | 13 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 8 |  Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 21:20 | 12 |
| 10 |  Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 12 |
| 11 |  Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 12 |  Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:11 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:14 | 10 |
| 14 |  Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:17 | 10 |
| 15 |  Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 9 |
| 17 |  Sholing | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:12 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 7 |
| 19 |  Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 6 |
| 21 |  Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12:23 | 5 |
| 22 |  Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.