France vs Belgium: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
BelgiumThe model puts France at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Belgium (2-3-7).
- −France are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Belgium are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- France will be without Zaire-Emery, Konate, Mateta, Mbappe, Saliba W., Tchuameni, Upamecano.
- Belgium have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France take 18 shots per game.
- France average 65% possession.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
France have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Belgium have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings. France have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
France will be without Zaire-Emery, Konate, Mateta, Mbappe, Saliba W., Tchuameni, Upamecano. Belgium will be without De Bruyne, Doku J., Courtois, Onana, Tielemans.
France take 18 shots per game. France average 65% possession. Belgium average 44% possession.
The model puts the draw at 20%. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Belgium?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Belgium?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 2 France wins, 3 draws, 7 Belgium wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.