Oss vs MVV Maastricht: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ossvs
MVV MaastrichtThe model puts Oss at 46%. The model leans toward Oss. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Oss.
- +The head-to-head record favours Oss (9-3-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Oss have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- MVV Maastricht have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Oss have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Oss is priced at 2.22.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Oss at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts MVV Maastricht at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Oss is priced at 2.22. The draw is priced at 3.5. MVV Maastricht is priced at 2.913.
Oss have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. MVV Maastricht have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Oss have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. MVV Maastricht have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Oss or MVV Maastricht?
Our model rates Oss as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Oss vs MVV Maastricht?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Oss wins, 3 draws, 3 MVV Maastricht wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26:10 | 21 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 | MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:15 | 16 |
| 4 |  VVV-Venlo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:14 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:17 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 |
| 19 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 20 | Oss | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.