Waalwijk vs Emmen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Waalwijkvs
EmmenThe model puts Waalwijk at 48%. The model leans toward Waalwijk. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Waalwijk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Emmen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Waalwijk have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Waalwijk is priced at 1.94.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Waalwijk at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Emmen at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Waalwijk. Waalwijk is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.82. Emmen is priced at 3.315.
Waalwijk have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Emmen have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Waalwijk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Emmen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Waalwijk or Emmen?
Our model rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 4 Waalwijk wins, 4 draws, 6 Emmen wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26:10 | 21 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:15 | 16 |
| 4 |  VVV-Venlo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:5 | 15 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18:17 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:14 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:17 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 |
| 19 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Oss | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.