UEFA Conference League

Gent vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Gentvs

AGF Aarhus

Our predictionGent to win

Model score: High · 60/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Gent at 56%. The model leans toward Gent. Confidence: high.

Win probabilities

1 · Gent56%

Draw24%

2 · AGF Aarhus20%

1 · GentDraw2 · AGF Aarhus

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.91+4.6%

1X2Gent1.72+0.4%

1X2AGF Aarhus4.68-0.2%

1X2Draw3.88-0.2%

BTTSYes1.80-4.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Gent

AGF Aarhus

Most likely scorelines

1-012.8%

2-012.0%

1-110.3%

2-19.7%

3-07.5%

0-06.8%

Recent form

Gent

AGF AarhusDWL

Expected goals

1.88Gent

0.81AGF Aarhus

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score47%

Match DNA

Gent AGF Aarhus

Key points

AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
Gent is priced at 1.715.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Gent win1.72Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	2
1	13	10	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	8	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Gent at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts AGF Aarhus at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Gent. Gent is priced at 1.715. The draw is priced at 3.88. AGF Aarhus is priced at 4.68.

AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.

The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Gent or AGF Aarhus?

Our model rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Gent vs AGF Aarhus?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward a balanced game.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	G	Form
1	Mjallby	0:0
2	Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0
3	AS Monaco	0:0
4	Jablonec	0:0
5	Gent	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
6	Sint-Truidense	0:0
7	Freiburg	0:0
8	Atalanta	0:0
9	Ajax	0:0
10	Twente	0:0
11	Getafe	0:0
12	Kuopion Palloseura	0:0
13	CSKA Sofia	0:0
14	Hajduk Split	0:0
15	Pafos	0:0
16	AGF Aarhus	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
17	Copenhagen	0:0
18	Midtjylland	0:0
19	Nordsjaelland	0:0
20	Panathinaikos	0:0
21	Brann	0:0
22	Braga	0:0
23	Heart of Midlothian	0:0
24	Lugano	0:0
25	Crvena Zvezda	0:0
26	Thun	0:0
27	Trabzonspor	0:0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0:0
29	Kairat	0:0
30	Egnatia	0:0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0:0
32	Zalgiris Kaunas	0:0
33	CS Universitatea Craiova	0:0
34	Iberia 1999	0:0
35	Lincoln Red Imps	0:0
36	Riga FC	0:0