Alvechurch vs Stourbridge: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alvechurchvs
StourbridgeThe model puts Alvechurch at 53%. The model leans toward Alvechurch. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Alvechurch.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Alvechurch have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stourbridge have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alvechurch have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alvechurch is priced at 1.86.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alvechurch at 53%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Stourbridge at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Alvechurch. Alvechurch is priced at 1.86. The draw is priced at 3.94. Stourbridge is priced at 3.82.
Alvechurch have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Stourbridge have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Alvechurch have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Alvechurch are on 2 wins in a row. Stourbridge have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alvechurch or Stourbridge?
Our model rates Alvechurch as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 6 Alvechurch wins, 2 draws, 6 Stourbridge wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. Central| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Bedford | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 26:8 | 24 |
| 2 |  Bury Town | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Bromsgrove | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17:4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Kettering Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Anstey Nomads | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Rushall Olympic | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Peterborough Sports | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Leiston | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:14 | 11 |
| 10 |  Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:11 | 10 |
| 11 |  Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 12 |  Redditch United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 13 |  Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:8 | 9 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 15 |  Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 16 |  Worcester City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Banbury United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:13 | 6 |
| 18 |  Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:15 | 5 |
| 19 |  Leamington | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:13 | 5 |
| 20 |  Hitchin Town | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 21 |  Stratford Town | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6:16 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stamford | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1:21 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.