VVV-Venlo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VVV-Venlovs
Roda JC KerkradeThe model puts VVV-Venlo at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VVV-Venlo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VVV-Venlo have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VVV-Venlo is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VVV-Venlo at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Roda JC Kerkrade at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. VVV-Venlo is priced at 2.34. The draw is priced at 3.68. Roda JC Kerkrade is priced at 2.58.
VVV-Venlo have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Roda JC Kerkrade have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
VVV-Venlo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VVV-Venlo or Roda JC Kerkrade?
Our model rates VVV-Venlo as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VVV-Venlo vs Roda JC Kerkrade?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 VVV-Venlo wins, 7 draws, 3 Roda JC Kerkrade wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26:10 | 21 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:15 | 16 |
| 4 | VVV-Venlo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21:14 | 15 |
| 5 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:14 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:17 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 |
| 19 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Oss | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.