Guatemala vs El Salvador: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guatemalavs
El SalvadorThe model puts Guatemala at 47%. The model leans toward Guatemala. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Guatemala.
- −The head-to-head record favours El Salvador (5-2-8).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guatemala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- El Salvador have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guatemala have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guatemala is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Guatemala at 47%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts El Salvador at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Guatemala. Guatemala is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 3.44. El Salvador is priced at 3.46.
Guatemala have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. El Salvador have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Guatemala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. El Salvador have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guatemala or El Salvador?
Our model rates Guatemala as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guatemala vs El Salvador?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Guatemala wins, 2 draws, 8 El Salvador wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Curacao | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Haiti | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Costa Rica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 5 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 6 |  Nicaragua | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.