Puebla vs Leon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pueblavs
LeonThe model puts Leon at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Leon.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leon is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Puebla at 30%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Leon at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Puebla is priced at 2.945. The draw is priced at 3.32. Leon is priced at 2.28.
Puebla have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Leon have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Leon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Puebla or Leon?
Our model rates Leon as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Puebla vs Leon?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Puebla wins, 2 draws, 7 Leon wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:12 | 20 |
| 2 |  Club America | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17:10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:8 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:17 | 17 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 8 |  Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11:12 | 14 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16:14 | 13 |
| 11 |  Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14:18 | 12 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Tigres de la UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10:15 | 10 |
| 17 |  Club Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12:20 | 8 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 7:25 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.