Arabian Gulf Cup

Saudi Arabia vs Iraq: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Saudi Arabiavs

Iraq

Our predictionSaudi Arabia to win

Model score: Medium · 54/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Saudi Arabia at 47%. The model leans toward Saudi Arabia. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Saudi Arabia.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Saudi Arabia47%

Draw28%

2 · Iraq24%

1 · Saudi ArabiaDraw2 · Iraq

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Over 2.52.43+2.3%

1X2Saudi Arabia2.08+1.5%

BTTSYes2.10+0.1%

BTTSNo1.64-0.1%

1X2Draw3.32-0.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Saudi ArabiaWWDLD

IraqWDLLL

Expected goals

1.49Saudi Arabia

0.84Iraq

Over 2.5 goals41%

Both teams to score44%

Team strength rating

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Most likely scorelines

1-014.5%

1-112.2%

2-010.8%

0-09.8%

2-19.1%

0-18.2%

Match DNA

Saudi Arabia Iraq

Key points

Saudi Arabia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Iraq have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Saudi Arabia have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Saudi Arabia is priced at 2.075.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Saudi Arabia win2.08Fair (+1.5%)

Double chanceSaudi Arabia or draw—Info

Total goalsUnder 2.51.54Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	10	8	3
1	15	12	5	1
2	11	9	4	1
3	5	4	2
4	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Saudi Arabia at 47%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Iraq at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is priced at 2.075. The draw is priced at 3.32. Iraq is priced at 3.7.

Saudi Arabia have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Iraq have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Saudi Arabia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Saudi Arabia are on 2 wins in a row. Iraq have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →