International Tournament. National Teams

Fiji vs New Caledonia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Fijivs

New Caledonia

Our predictionFiji to win

Model score: High · 69/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Fiji at 56%. The model leans toward Fiji. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Fiji.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Fiji56%

Draw23%

2 · New Caledonia21%

1 · FijiDraw2 · New Caledonia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.37+14.3%

1X2Fiji1.69+1.1%

1X2Draw4.10+0.2%

1X2New Caledonia4.09-1.3%

BTTSYes1.52-14.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

FijiWLDDL

New CaledoniaLWLLW

Team strength rating

Fiji

New Caledonia

Most likely scorelines

1-013.0%

2-012.0%

1-110.5%

2-19.7%

3-07.3%

0-07.1%

Expected goals

1.84Fiji

0.81New Caledonia

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score47%

Match DNA

Fiji New Caledonia

Key points

Fiji have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
New Caledonia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fiji have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Fiji is priced at 1.69.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Fiji win1.69Fair (+1.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	2
1	13	11	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	7	6	2
4	3	3	1
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Fiji at 56%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts New Caledonia at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Fiji. Fiji is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 4.1. New Caledonia is priced at 4.095.

Fiji have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. New Caledonia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Fiji have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New Caledonia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →