Iceland vs Bulgaria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Icelandvs
BulgariaThe model puts Iceland at 62%. The model leans toward Iceland. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Iceland (3-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Iceland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bulgaria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Iceland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Iceland is priced at 1.555.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Iceland at 62%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Bulgaria at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Iceland. Iceland is priced at 1.555. The draw is priced at 3.96. Bulgaria is priced at 6.3.
Iceland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Iceland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bulgaria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Iceland or Bulgaria?
Our model rates Iceland as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 3 Iceland wins, 1 draws, 0 Bulgaria wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Finland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.