CONCACAF Nations League

Nicaragua vs Costa Rica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Nicaraguavs

Costa Rica

Our predictionCosta Rica to win

Model score: Medium · 43/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Costa Rica at 54%. The model leans toward Costa Rica. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Nicaragua (6-2-0).
−Recent form favours Nicaragua.

Win probabilities

1 · Nicaragua23%

Draw23%

2 · Costa Rica54%

1 · NicaraguaDraw2 · Costa Rica

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Nicaragua5.21+5.5%

BTTSNo1.81+0.4%

BTTSYes1.89-0.4%

1X2Draw3.82-1.6%

1X2Costa Rica1.60-3.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

NicaraguaLWLLW

Costa RicaLLLDL

Team strength rating

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Most likely scorelines

0-112.6%

1-111.4%

0-210.7%

1-29.7%

0-07.4%

1-06.7%

Expected goals

0.90Nicaragua

1.70Costa Rica

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score49%

Match DNA

Nicaragua Costa Rica

Key points

Nicaragua have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Costa Rica have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nicaragua have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Costa Rica is priced at 1.6.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Costa Rica win1.60Fair (-3.9%)

Double chanceCosta Rica or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	13	11	6	3
1	7	11	10	5	2
2	3	5	4	2	1
3		2	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Nicaragua at 23%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Costa Rica at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Costa Rica. Nicaragua is priced at 5.21. The draw is priced at 3.82. Costa Rica is priced at 1.6.

Nicaragua have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Nicaragua have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Costa Rica have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →