Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
Athletic BilbaoThe model puts Real Sociedad at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have 0 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Real Sociedad is priced at 2.256.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Real Sociedad is priced at 2.256. The draw is priced at 3.58. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 3.02.
Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 4 matches. Athletic Bilbao have 0 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Athletic Bilbao?
Our model rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.