UEFA Nations League

Scotland vs Slovenia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Scotlandvs

Slovenia

Our predictionScotland to win

Model score: Low · 12/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Scotland at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Slovenia.
−The head-to-head record favours Slovenia (0-4-2).

Win probabilities

1 · Scotland39%

Draw29%

2 · Slovenia31%

1 · ScotlandDraw2 · Slovenia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Slovenia3.56+4.7%

BTTSNo1.77+0.5%

O/U 2.5Under 2.51.60+0.2%

O/U 2.5Over 2.52.34-0.2%

BTTSYes2.00-0.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.24Scotland

1.06Slovenia

Over 2.5 goals40%

Both teams to score46%

Recent form

ScotlandLDLDW

SloveniaWDWWW

Most likely scorelines

1-113.2%

1-012.5%

0-110.6%

0-010.0%

2-18.2%

2-07.7%

Team strength rating

Scotland

Slovenia

Match DNA

Scotland Slovenia

Key points

Scotland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Slovenia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Scotland is priced at 2.256.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Scotland win2.26Fair (-2.7%)

Double chanceScotland or draw—Info

Total goalsUnder 2.51.60Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	10	11	6	2
1	12	13	7	2
2	8	8	4	2
3	3	3	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Scotland at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Slovenia at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Scotland is priced at 2.256. The draw is priced at 3.04. Slovenia is priced at 3.56.

Slovenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Scotland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Slovenia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →