Scotland vs Slovenia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Scotlandvs
SloveniaThe model puts Scotland at 48%. The model leans toward Scotland. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Slovenia.
- −The head-to-head record favours Slovenia (0-4-2).
- −Scotland are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Slovenia are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Scotland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Slovenia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Scotland will be without Tierney K., McLean K., McTominay, Adams, Shankland L., McKenna S..
- Slovenia will be without Sesko B., Zan Zaletel, Prelec, Ratnik.
- Scotland is priced at 1.875.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 14 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 21 | 12 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Scotland at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Slovenia at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Scotland. Scotland is priced at 1.875. The draw is priced at 3.26. Slovenia is priced at 4.7.
Slovenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Scotland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Slovenia have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Slovenia are on 2 wins in a row.
Scotland average 0 goals per game this season. Scotland average 23% possession. Slovenia average 1 goals per game this season. Slovenia average 34% possession.
The model gives 24% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Scotland or Slovenia?
Our model rates Scotland as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Scotland vs Slovenia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Scotland wins, 4 draws, 2 Slovenia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.