Gosport Borough vs Poole Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gosport Boroughvs
Poole TownThe model puts Poole Town at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Poole Town.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gosport Borough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Poole Town have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gosport Borough have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Poole Town is priced at 2.27.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gosport Borough at 32%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Poole Town at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Gosport Borough is priced at 2.727. The draw is priced at 3.32. Poole Town is priced at 2.27.
Gosport Borough have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Poole Town have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gosport Borough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Poole Town have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Poole Town are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gosport Borough or Poole Town?
Our model rates Poole Town as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gosport Borough vs Poole Town?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Gosport Borough wins, 2 draws, 7 Poole Town wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. South| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Plymouth Parkway | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23:8 | 20 |
| 2 |  Uxbridge | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19:8 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hanworth Villa | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 19 |
| 4 | Poole Town | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Bath City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:8 | 17 |
| 6 |  Frome Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Chertsey Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 20:15 | 14 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:22 | 13 |
| 9 |  Chichester City | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  Evesham United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Berkhamsted | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 11:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Wimborne Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:4 | 12 |
| 13 | Gosport Borough | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yate Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:18 | 12 |
| 15 |  Bracknell Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:18 | 11 |
| 16 |  Sholing | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 17 |  Basingstoke Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 18 |  Hanwell Town | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 19 |  Gloucester City | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12:17 | 7 |
| 20 |  Chippenham Town | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7:16 | 7 |
| 21 |  Havant & Waterlooville | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13:25 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.