Avro vs Lancaster City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Avrovs
Lancaster CityThe model puts Avro at 55%. The model leans toward Avro. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Lancaster City have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Avro is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Avro at 55%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Lancaster City at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Avro. Avro is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 3.9. Lancaster City is priced at 3.99.
Lancaster City have 2 wins in their last 4 matches. Lancaster City are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 31% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Avro or Lancaster City?
Our model rates Avro as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Avro vs Lancaster City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
England. Northern Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27:7 | 27 |
| 2 |  Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Guiseley | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 22 |
| 4 | Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28:16 | 22 |
| 5 |  Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 21 |
| 6 |  Rylands | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:17 | 20 |
| 7 |  Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | 19 |
| 8 |  Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 18:13 | 18 |
| 9 |  Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20:16 | 18 |
| 10 |  Bury | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 16 |
| 11 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20:14 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 13:19 | 16 |
| 13 |  Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 14 |  Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 15 |  Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 17:32 | 12 |
| 16 |  Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 17 |  Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 22:23 | 10 |
| 18 |  Quorn | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18:27 | 10 |
| 19 |  Emley | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10:22 | 10 |
| 20 |  Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 16:31 | 9 |
| 21 |  Ilkeston | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 7:26 | 7 |
| 22 |  United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 12:20 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.