Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
Brighton & Hove AlbionThe model puts Liverpool at 46%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brighton & Hove Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Brighton & Hove Albion at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Liverpool is priced at 2.03. The draw is priced at 3.86. Brighton & Hove Albion is priced at 3.3.
Liverpool have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Brighton & Hove Albion have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Brighton & Hove Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Brighton & Hove Albion are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Brighton & Hove Albion?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Liverpool wins, 3 draws, 7 Brighton & Hove Albion wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:5 | 18 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:12 | 7 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 14 |  Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5:11 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 17 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 19 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.