Ashton United vs Alfreton Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ashton Unitedvs
Alfreton TownThe model puts Ashton United at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ashton United (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ashton United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alfreton Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ashton United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ashton United is priced at 2.42.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ashton United at 38%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Alfreton Town at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Ashton United is priced at 2.42. The draw is priced at 3.38. Alfreton Town is priced at 2.42.
Ashton United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Alfreton Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ashton United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Alfreton Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ashton United or Alfreton Town?
Our model rates Ashton United as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ashton United vs Alfreton Town?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Ashton United wins, 1 draws, 1 Alfreton Town wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.