Bury Town vs Needham Market: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bury Townvs
Needham MarketThe model puts Bury Town at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Needham Market (1-1-3).
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bury Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Needham Market have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bury Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bury Town is priced at 2.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Bury Town at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Needham Market at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bury Town. Bury Town is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.34. Needham Market is priced at 2.997.
Bury Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Needham Market have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bury Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Needham Market have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bury Town or Needham Market?
Our model rates Bury Town as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bury Town vs Needham Market?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Bury Town wins, 1 draws, 3 Needham Market wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.