AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AZ Alkmaarvs
TwenteThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours AZ Alkmaar (8-2-5).
- −AZ Alkmaar are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Twente are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AZ Alkmaar will be without Resink, Smith, Clasie, Hornkamp J..
- Twente will be without Lemkin, Thorvaldsen, Bruns, Unnerstall L..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 45%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Twente at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 2.208. The draw is priced at 3.82. Twente is priced at 2.96.
AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Twente have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Twente have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
AZ Alkmaar average 2 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 59% possession. Twente average 2 goals per game this season. Twente average 58% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AZ Alkmaar or Twente?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 AZ Alkmaar wins, 2 draws, 5 Twente wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar
- 3Goes W.
- 4Schouten L.
- 5Garcia Mat.
- 6Koopmeiners
- 9Meerdink
- 11Daal
- 17Andreasen V.
- 21Kwakman
- 22Dijkstra
- 24Oufkir
- 28Busser
- Resink (Missing Player)
- Smith (Missing Player)
- Clasie (Questionable)
- Hornkamp J. (Missing Player)
Twente
- 3Propper R.
- 4Nijstad
- 6Zerrouki
- 8Weidmann
- 9Weghorst
- 10Taha
- 11Rothes
- 16Drommel
- 27Orjasaeter
- 28van Rooij
- 29Adelgaard
- Lemkin (Missing Player)
- Thorvaldsen (Missing Player)
- Bruns (Missing Player)
- Unnerstall L. (Missing Player)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 23:23 | 14 |
| 9 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 10 |  Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17:27 | 12 |
| 11 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 17 |  Telstar | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 12:21 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.