Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fortuna Sittardvs
ExcelsiorThe model puts Fortuna Sittard at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Fortuna Sittard.
- −Excelsior score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Fortuna Sittard are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fortuna Sittard will be without Ramazan Bayram, Dahlhaus, Marquez I., Oukili.
- Fortuna Sittard is priced at 2.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 40%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Excelsior at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.66. Excelsior is priced at 2.775.
Fortuna Sittard have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Excelsior have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Excelsior have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fortuna Sittard average 1 goals per game this season. Fortuna Sittard average 35% possession. Excelsior average 2 goals per game this season. Excelsior average 38% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fortuna Sittard or Excelsior?
Our model rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 6 Fortuna Sittard wins, 3 draws, 5 Excelsior wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard
- 0Branderhorst
- 0Guth
- 0Ottele T.
- 0Brittijn
- 0Hubner
- 0Michut
- 0't Zand
- 0Simons
- 0Pinto Iv.
- 0Descotte
- 0Zeefuik
- Ramazan Bayram (Missing Player)
- Dahlhaus (Questionable)
- Marquez I. (Missing Player)
- Oukili (Missing Player)
Excelsior
- 0van Gassel
- 0Janssen S.
- 0Plug
- 0Widell
- 0Van de Wetering
- 0Meissen
- 0Hartjes
- 0Thorsteinsson
- 0Yegoian
- 0Sliti
- 0Garden
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:26 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.