RC Lens vs Paris: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
RC Lensvs
ParisThe model puts RC Lens at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Paris.
- +RC Lens score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Paris (4-3-7).
- −RC Lens are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Paris are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- RC Lens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RC Lens have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- RC Lens will be without Ganiou, Gradit, Nawrocki, Sima.
- Paris will be without Sangui, Ikone.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts RC Lens at 40%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Paris at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. RC Lens is priced at 2.408. The draw is priced at 3.64. Paris is priced at 2.755.
RC Lens have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Paris have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
RC Lens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Paris have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
RC Lens average 2 goals per game this season. RC Lens average 53% possession. Paris average 1 goals per game this season. Paris average 53% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, RC Lens or Paris?
Our model rates RC Lens as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for RC Lens vs Paris?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 4 RC Lens wins, 3 draws, 7 Paris wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
RC Lens
- 0Risser
- 0Baidoo
- 0Todibo
- 0Antonio
- 0Udol
- 0Cuisance
- 0Titraoui
- 0Aguilar Rub.
- 0Sotoca
- 0Thauvin
- 0Edouard Od.
- Ganiou (Questionable)
- Gradit (Questionable)
- Nawrocki (Missing Player)
- Sima (Missing Player)
Paris
- 0Trapp K.
- 0Traore Ham.
- 0Coppola
- 0Chergui
- 0Camara
- 0Lopez M.
- 0Lees-Melou
- 0Koleosho
- 0Pagis
- 0Kebbal
- 0Sinayoko L.
- Sangui (Missing Player)
- Ikone (Questionable)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 |  AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 | RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.