TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 2.304.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 34%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.664. The draw is priced at 4.1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 2.304.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are on 2 wins in a row. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins, 3 draws, 7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. Koln | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8:20 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.