1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. FSV Mainz 05vs
Werder BremenThe model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 54%. The model leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Werder Bremen.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.67.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 54%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Werder Bremen at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.67. The draw is priced at 4.24. Werder Bremen is priced at 4.54.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Werder Bremen have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Werder Bremen have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Werder Bremen are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins, 2 draws, 6 Werder Bremen wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 |  Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 |  Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7:18 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.