Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Levante UDvs
Athletic BilbaoThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Levante UD (9-4-2).
- +Levante UD are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Athletic Bilbao are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Levante UD have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levante UD have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Levante UD will be without Eyong, Alejandro Primo.
- Athletic Bilbao will be without Unai Eguiluz Arroyo, Vivian, Canales, Guruzeta.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Levante UD at 32%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Levante UD is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.38. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 2.16.
Levante UD have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Levante UD have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Athletic Bilbao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Levante UD average 4 goals per game this season. Levante UD average 32% possession. Athletic Bilbao average 1 goals per game this season. Athletic Bilbao average 39% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Levante UD or Athletic Bilbao?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Levante UD wins, 4 draws, 2 Athletic Bilbao wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Levante UD
- 3Ndukve
- 4Barquilla
- 8Olasagasti
- 9Romero
- 13Ryan M.
- 18Bardeli
- 20Rey
- 23Sanchez Man.
- 24Fernandez
- 27Cortes
- 29Perez
- Eyong (2)
- Alejandro Primo (2)
Athletic Bilbao
- 1Simon
- 4Paredes
- 7Berenguer Al.
- 8Sancet
- 14Laporte
- 16Inigo R.
- 17Berchiche
- 18Jauregizar
- 21Sannadi
- 23Navarro
- 31Louis-Jean
- Unai Eguiluz Arroyo (2)
- Vivian (2)
- Canales (3)
- Guruzeta (3)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante UD | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:17 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6:15 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.