Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atletico Madridvs
Deportivo de A CorunaThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 76%. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo de A Coruna (1-3-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atletico Madrid at 76%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.2. The draw is priced at 6.65. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 14.
Atletico Madrid have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo de A Coruna have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo de A Coruna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atletico Madrid average 2 goals per game this season. Atletico Madrid average 53% possession. Deportivo de A Coruna average 1 goals per game this season. Deportivo de A Coruna average 39% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico Madrid or Deportivo de A Coruna?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Atletico Madrid wins, 3 draws, 11 Deportivo de A Coruna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:17 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6:15 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.