Minnesota United vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Minnesota Unitedvs
St. Louis CityThe model puts Minnesota United at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours St. Louis City (2-0-6).
- +Minnesota United creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
- −Minnesota United are dealing with notable absentees.
- +St. Louis City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Minnesota United will be without Smir, Stroud.
- St. Louis City will be without Celio Pompeu, Durkin, Wallem.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Minnesota United at 41%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts St. Louis City at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Minnesota United is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.78. St. Louis City is priced at 2.715.
Minnesota United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 47% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 49% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or St. Louis City?
Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs St. Louis City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 Minnesota United wins, 0 draws, 6 St. Louis City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.