New York Red Bulls vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
TorontoThe model puts New York Red Bulls at 57%. The model leans toward New York Red Bulls. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Toronto (1-5-9).
- +New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +New York Red Bulls creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).
- −New York Red Bulls are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Toronto are dealing with notable absentees.
- +New York Red Bulls controls more of the ball (51% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New York Red Bulls will be without Donkor, Marcucci.
- Toronto will be without Palacio, Kuscevic, Laryea, Zimmerman.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 57%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Toronto at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward New York Red Bulls. New York Red Bulls is priced at 1.715. The draw is priced at 4.44. Toronto is priced at 4.08.
New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Toronto have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 51% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 45% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Toronto?
Our model rates New York Red Bulls as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 New York Red Bulls wins, 5 draws, 9 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.