Atalanta vs Frosinone Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atalantavs
Frosinone CalcioThe model puts Atalanta at 60%. The model leans toward Atalanta. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Atalanta (5-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atalanta have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atalanta is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atalanta at 60%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Frosinone Calcio at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Atalanta. Atalanta is priced at 1.62. The draw is priced at 4.36. Frosinone Calcio is priced at 4.86.
Atalanta have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Frosinone Calcio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atalanta are on 2 wins in a row. Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atalanta average 1 goals per game this season. Atalanta average 53% possession. Frosinone Calcio average 2 goals per game this season. Frosinone Calcio average 48% possession.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atalanta or Frosinone Calcio?
Our model rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Frosinone Calcio?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 5 Atalanta wins, 2 draws, 1 Frosinone Calcio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Roma | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 5 |  Milan | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Como | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 12 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 15 |  Udinese Calcio | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5:16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.