Santa Clara vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santa Claravs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 76%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Benfica.
- +The head-to-head record favours Benfica (1-2-12).
- +Benfica score more per game (2.0 at home vs 4.0 away).
- +Benfica creates more chances (14 vs 16 shots per game).
- +Benfica controls more of the ball (48% vs 64%).
- −Benfica are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Clara have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Santa Clara will be without Araujo.
- Benfica will be without Banjaqui D., Ferreyra, Barreiro Martins, Barrenetxea, Duran, Kaminski J., Pavlidis.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | |
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santa Clara at 10%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Benfica at 76%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-4.
The market leans toward Benfica. Santa Clara is priced at 10. The draw is priced at 5.65. Benfica is priced at 1.28.
Santa Clara have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Benfica have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica are on 3 wins in a row.
Santa Clara average 2 goals per game this season. Santa Clara average 48% possession. Benfica average 4 goals per game this season. Benfica average 64% possession.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 87% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santa Clara or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 0-4 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Santa Clara wins, 2 draws, 12 Benfica wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Santa Clara
- 1Franca L.
- 4Pacheco P.
- 5Guilherme R.
- 6Ferreira Pe.
- 8Tavares
- 9Paciencia G.
- 10Brenner
- 20Ribeiro
- 21Fernandes
- 42Soares
- 70Vinicius Lopes da Silva
- Araujo (Questionable)
Benfica
- 1Trubin
- 3Circati
- 6Ba
- 8Aursnes
- 10Sudakov
- 25Prestianni
- 26Dal
- 27Rafa
- 30Echeverri
- 36Palhinha
- 44Araújo
- Banjaqui D. (Missing Player)
- Ferreyra (Missing Player)
- Barreiro Martins (Missing Player)
- Barrenetxea (Missing Player)
- Duran (Missing Player)
- Kaminski J. (Missing Player)
- Pavlidis (Questionable)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico de Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 7 |  Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Braga | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:16 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela da Amadora | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:19 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:18 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5:17 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8:21 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5:15 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.