East Bengal vs Al-Shorta Baghdad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
East Bengalvs
Al-Shorta BaghdadThe model puts Al-Shorta Baghdad at 47%. The model leans toward Al-Shorta Baghdad. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al-Shorta Baghdad.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- East Bengal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Shorta Baghdad have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Shorta Baghdad is priced at 2.031.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts East Bengal at 27%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Al-Shorta Baghdad at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Al-Shorta Baghdad. East Bengal is priced at 3.35. The draw is priced at 3.515. Al-Shorta Baghdad is priced at 2.031.
East Bengal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Shorta Baghdad have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, East Bengal or Al-Shorta Baghdad?
Our model rates Al-Shorta Baghdad as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for East Bengal vs Al-Shorta Baghdad?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
East Bengal
- 3Bhatt
- 4Ali An.
- 5Lalchungnunga
- 10Lalrindika
- 11Ramires
- 13Singh Gill P.
- 14Lalhlansanga
- 21Zivulic
- 25Singh Thaunaojam
- 27Gupta
- 74Rashid
Al-Shorta Baghdad
- 4Ramirez
- 5Jabbar M.
- 9Ali H.
- 10Leonel Christian Ateba
- 11Shakir
- 12Hachim Ja.
- 13Ngalamulume Bato
- 14Moumouni
- 15Yahia
- 23Cucu
- 25Salih
Match story
How the game unfoldedAn end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Lalhlansanga (8'), Yahia (14')). Score moves to 1–1.
East Bengal make it count (Lalhlansanga (40')). It's 2–1 at this point.
Half-time score: East Bengal 2 – 1 Al-Shorta Baghdad.
Al-Shorta Baghdad make it count (Ali H. (51'), Cucu (53')). It's 2–3 at this point.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 2–3.
League table
AFC Champions League 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Wahda Abu Dhabi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Nasaf Qarshi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Al Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Al Kuwait SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.