Bury vs Leek Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Buryvs
Leek TownThe model puts Bury at 64%. The model leans toward Bury. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bury.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bury have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leek Town have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Bury is priced at 1.454.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Bury at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Leek Town at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Bury. Bury is priced at 1.454. The draw is priced at 4.65. Leek Town is priced at 4.84.
Bury have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Leek Town have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 76% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bury or Leek Town?
Our model rates Bury as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bury vs Leek Town?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.