Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad Jeddah: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Neftchi Ferganavs
Al-Ittihad JeddahThe model puts Al-Ittihad Jeddah at 59%. The model leans toward Al-Ittihad Jeddah. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al-Ittihad Jeddah.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Neftchi Fergana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad Jeddah have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Neftchi Fergana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Ittihad Jeddah is priced at 1.632.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Neftchi Fergana at 20%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Al-Ittihad Jeddah at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Al-Ittihad Jeddah. Neftchi Fergana is priced at 4.74. The draw is priced at 4.34. Al-Ittihad Jeddah is priced at 1.632.
Neftchi Fergana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Neftchi Fergana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Ittihad Jeddah have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Ittihad Jeddah are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Neftchi Fergana or Al-Ittihad Jeddah?
Our model rates Al-Ittihad Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad Jeddah?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Neftchi Fergana wins, 0 draws, 0 Al-Ittihad Jeddah wins.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Shanghai Port | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Darul Takzim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:7 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hanoi Police | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Port | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.