Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

Chapecoense vs Fluminense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Chapecoensevs

Fluminense

Our predictionFluminense to win

Model score: Medium · 49/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Fluminense at 49%. The model leans toward Fluminense. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Chapecoense.
−Chapecoense creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
+Fluminense controls more of the ball (43% vs 56%).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
+Chapecoense are dealing with notable absentees.
−Fluminense are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Chapecoense27%

Draw24%

2 · Fluminense49%

1 · ChapecoenseDraw2 · Fluminense

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.98+11.5%

1X2Chapecoense4.28+4.8%

1X2Draw3.66-1.6%

1X2Fluminense1.82-3.2%

BTTSYes1.74-11.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

ChapecoenseDWWLL

FluminenseLWLDD

Expected goals

0.88Chapecoense

1.24Fluminense

Over 2.5 goals36%

Both teams to score42%

Team strength rating

Chapecoense

Fluminense

Most likely scorelines

0-114.8%

1-113.1%

0-011.9%

1-010.5%

0-29.2%

1-28.1%

Match DNA

Chapecoense Fluminense

Key points

Chapecoense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fluminense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chapecoense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Chapecoense will be without Fonseca He., Kauan, dos Santos Cavalheira Natividade, dos Santos Conceicao, Vinicius.
Fluminense will be without John Kennedy, Martinelli, Matheus Reis de Lima, Alisson, Savarino J..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Fluminense win1.82Fair (-3.2%)

Double chanceFluminense or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	15	9	4	1
1	11	13	8	3	1
2	5	6	4	1
3	1	2	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Chapecoense at 27%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Fluminense at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Fluminense. Chapecoense is priced at 4.28. The draw is priced at 3.66. Fluminense is priced at 1.825.

Chapecoense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Fluminense have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Chapecoense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fluminense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Chapecoense average 1 goals per game this season. Chapecoense average 43% possession. Fluminense average 1 goals per game this season. Fluminense average 56% possession.

The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Chapecoense or Fluminense?

Our model rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 5 Chapecoense wins, 4 draws, 6 Fluminense wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchAndersonChapecoense8.4

Chapecoense

Starting XI

3Domachowski5.7
4Paulo6.4
7Marcinho6.5
9Tulio6.2
10Oliveira G.A.7.1
20Tubarao B.6.3
27Camilo6.9
31Garcez M.6.2
88Rocha Y.6.4
91Pacheco Br.6.9
98Anderson8.4

Unavailable

Fonseca He. (Missing Player)
Kauan (Missing Player)
dos Santos Cavalheira Natividade (Missing Player)
dos Santos Conceicao (Missing Player)
Vinicius (Missing Player)

Coach: Rafael dos Santos Lacerda

Fluminense

Starting XI

1Fabio D.7.0
3Silva T7.6
7Hulk6.7
13Guilherme Ar.7.2
16Nonato6.5
17Canobbio A.6.1
23Guga6.7
29Millan J.6.8
30Martinez Y. S.6.6
32Acosta Luc.5.9
35Pereira do Nascimento7.3

Unavailable

John Kennedy (Missing Player)
Martinelli (Questionable)
Matheus Reis de Lima (Missing Player)
Alisson (Missing Player)
Savarino J. (Missing Player)

Coach: Marcelo Antonio de Oliveira

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	4	7	61:25	67
2	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras	31	19	3	9	54:22	66
3	Clube Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49:37	53
4	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube	31	15	10	6	50:46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	8	9	49:39	51
6	Clube Atletico Mineiro	31	14	9	8	42:35	50
7	Bahia	31	13	8	10	44:39	49
8	Santos	31	12	10	9	48:46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	13	6	36:35	42
10	Red Bull Bragantino	31	11	12	8	39:36	41
11	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas	31	10	12	9	44:48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	12	9	38:49	39
13	EC Vitoria Salvador	31	10	14	7	34:45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	13	9	36:44	36
15	CR Vasco da Gama	30	9	13	8	36:43	35
16	Corinthians Paulista	31	8	14	9	32:39	33
17	Sport Club Internacional	31	7	13	11	33:40	32
18	Gremio Porto Alegrense	31	7	14	10	34:44	31
19	Clube do Remo	31	5	15	11	34:49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	18	9	30:62	18

Promotion - Copa Libertadores - (Group stage) Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) Promotion - Copa Sudamericana Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.