UEFA Champions League

Manchester City vs AEK Athens: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Manchester Cityvs

AEK Athens

Our predictionManchester City to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Manchester City at 91%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: high.

Win probabilities

1 · Manchester City91%

Draw7%

2 · AEK Athens3%

1 · Manchester CityDraw2 · AEK Athens

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.47+19.8%

1X2Manchester City1.05+0.1%

1X2AEK Athens34.00-0.0%

1X2Draw14.00-0.1%

BTTSYes2.52-19.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Manchester City

AEK Athens

Expected goals

2.86Manchester City

0.20AEK Athens

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score17%

Most likely scorelines

2-019.2%

3-018.3%

1-013.4%

4-013.1%

5-07.5%

0-04.7%

Match DNA

Manchester City AEK Athens

Key points

Manchester City is priced at 1.05.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Manchester City win1.05Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1
0	5
1	13	3
2	19	4
3	18	4
4	13	3
5	7	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Manchester City at 91%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts AEK Athens at 3%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Manchester City. Manchester City is priced at 1.05. The draw is priced at 14. AEK Athens is priced at 34.

Manchester City average 2 goals per game this season. Manchester City average 64% possession. AEK Athens average 1 goals per game this season. AEK Athens average 49% possession.

The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Manchester City or AEK Athens?

Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 91% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Manchester City vs AEK Athens?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Champions League (League stage)

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	2	2	0	0	10:3	6
2	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	9:2	6
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	9:2	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	6:1	6
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	8:4	6
6	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
7	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4:0	6
8	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	6:4	6
9	Real Betis	2	2	0	0	6:4	6
10	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	8:3	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	1	0	1	4:2	4
12	Como	2	1	1	0	6:4	3
13	Manchester United	2	1	1	0	4:2	3
14	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	5:4	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
16	Club Brugge	2	1	1	0	6:6	3
17	Manchester City	2	1	1	0	4:4	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
19	RC Lens	2	1	1	0	3:4	3
20	AEK Athens	2	1	1	0	2:3	3
21	RasenBallsport Leipzig	2	1	1	0	2:4	3
22	Sabah Baku	2	1	1	0	2:4	3
23	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	4:7	3
24	Bodo-Glimt	2	1	1	0	1:5	3
25	Roma	2	0	1	1	4:5	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
27	Viking	2	0	1	1	4:6	1
28	Fenerbahce	2	0	1	1	1:7	1
29	Internazionale Milano	2	0	2	0	4:6	0
30	Porto	2	0	2	0	2:5	0
31	Slavia Prague	2	0	2	0	2:5	0
32	Napoli	2	0	2	0	1:4	0
33	LASK Linz	2	0	2	0	3:7	0
34	Lille OSC	2	0	2	0	2:6	0
35	Galatasaray	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	0	2	0	1:9	0