Internazionale Milano vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Internazionale Milanovs
Shakhtar DonetskThe model puts Internazionale Milano at 77%. The model leans toward Internazionale Milano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Shakhtar Donetsk.
- +The head-to-head record favours Internazionale Milano (3-4-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Internazionale Milano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Internazionale Milano have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Internazionale Milano is priced at 1.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 20 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 19 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Internazionale Milano at 77%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Internazionale Milano. Internazionale Milano is priced at 1.2. The draw is priced at 7.2. Shakhtar Donetsk is priced at 12.
Internazionale Milano have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Internazionale Milano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Shakhtar Donetsk are on 5 wins in a row.
Internazionale Milano average 1 goals per game this season. Internazionale Milano average 64% possession. Shakhtar Donetsk average 1 goals per game this season. Shakhtar Donetsk average 46% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Internazionale Milano or Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model rates Internazionale Milano as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Internazionale Milano vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 3 Internazionale Milano wins, 4 draws, 0 Shakhtar Donetsk wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Champions League (League stage)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Como | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 16 |  Club Brugge | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 17 |  Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 19 |  RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 20 |  AEK Athens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Sabah Baku | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 23 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 24 |  Bodo-Glimt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 26 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 28 |  Fenerbahce | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:7 | 1 |
| 29 | Internazionale Milano | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 30 |  Porto | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 31 |  Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Napoli | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 33 |  LASK Linz | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Lille OSC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.