Kylian Mbappe vs Sevilla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kylian Mbappevs
SevillaThe model puts Kylian Mbappe at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Sevilla have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Kylian Mbappe is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Kylian Mbappe at 45%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Sevilla at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Kylian Mbappe. Kylian Mbappe is priced at 2.03. The draw is priced at 2.87. Sevilla is priced at 3.715.
Sevilla have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 30% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kylian Mbappe or Sevilla?
Our model rates Kylian Mbappe as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kylian Mbappe vs Sevilla?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.