UEFA Europa League

Celje vs FC Salzburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Celjevs

FC Salzburg

Our predictionFC Salzburg to win

Model score: Low · 22/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts FC Salzburg at 46%. The model leans toward FC Salzburg. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Celje29%

Draw25%

2 · FC Salzburg46%

1 · CeljeDraw2 · FC Salzburg

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.26+34.2%

1X2Celje3.38+0.6%

1X2Draw3.72-0.2%

1X2FC Salzburg2.05-0.4%

BTTSYes1.58-34.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

0.61Celje

0.78FC Salzburg

Over 2.5 goals16%

Both teams to score25%

Most likely scorelines

0-025.0%

0-119.5%

1-015.2%

1-111.8%

0-27.6%

2-04.6%

Team strength rating

Celje

FC Salzburg

Match DNA

Celje FC Salzburg

Key points

FC Salzburg is priced at 2.048.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2FC Salzburg win2.05Fair

Double chanceFC Salzburg or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	25	19	8	2
1	15	12	5	1
2	5	4	1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Celje at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts FC Salzburg at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward FC Salzburg. Celje is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.72. FC Salzburg is priced at 2.048.

Celje average 0 goals per game this season. Celje average 44% possession. FC Salzburg average 1 goals per game this season. FC Salzburg average 50% possession.

The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Celje or FC Salzburg?

Our model rates FC Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Celje vs FC Salzburg?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Europa League - League stage

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	7:1	6
2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6:0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	6:1	6
4	Besiktas	2	2	0	0	7:3	6
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
6	AC Omonia	2	2	0	0	4:0	6
7	Ferencvarosi	2	2	0	0	5:2	6
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	5:3	6
9	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
10	Olympiacos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
11	AC Sparta Prague	2	1	0	1	5:2	4
12	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2	1	0	1	4:1	4
13	Stade Rennais	2	1	0	1	2:1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	0	1	1:0	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	6:3	3
16	Milan	2	1	1	0	4:2	3
17	Jagiellonia Bialystok	2	1	1	0	4:3	3
18	OFI Crete	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
19	S.C.U. Torreense	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	2:2	3
21	FC Salzburg	2	1	1	0	1:4	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
25	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	0:3	1
27	N.E.C.	2	0	1	1	1:6	1
28	Celta	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
29	Anderlecht	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
30	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	2:5	0
31	Viktoria Plzen	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
32	Olympique de Marseille	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
33	Celtic	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
34	Ararat - Armenia	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
35	Celje	2	0	2	0	0:5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	2	0	0:8	0