Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hertha BSCvs
Arminia BielefeldThe model puts Hertha BSC at 52%. The model leans toward Hertha BSC. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Hertha BSC are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Hertha BSC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hertha BSC will be without Lum B., Dardai M., Nilsson G..
- Arminia Bielefeld will be without Daniel Richter.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Hertha BSC at 52%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Hertha BSC. Hertha BSC is priced at 1.77. The draw is priced at 3.98. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 3.94.
Hertha BSC have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Arminia Bielefeld have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hertha BSC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Hertha BSC average 3 goals per game this season. Hertha BSC average 42% possession. Arminia Bielefeld average 1 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 50% possession.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hertha BSC or Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Hertha BSC wins, 5 draws, 6 Arminia Bielefeld wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.