Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tottenham Hotspurvs
Crystal PalaceThe model puts Tottenham Hotspur at 63%. The model leans toward Tottenham Hotspur. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tottenham Hotspur.
- +The head-to-head record favours Tottenham Hotspur (9-2-4).
- +Tottenham Hotspur creates more chances (17 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Tottenham Hotspur controls more of the ball (61% vs 47%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Tottenham Hotspur have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tottenham Hotspur have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tottenham Hotspur is priced at 1.615.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tottenham Hotspur at 63%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Crystal Palace at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tottenham Hotspur. Tottenham Hotspur is priced at 1.615. The draw is priced at 4.14. Crystal Palace is priced at 5.15.
Tottenham Hotspur have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Crystal Palace have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tottenham Hotspur have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Crystal Palace have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Tottenham Hotspur average 1 goals per game this season. Tottenham Hotspur average 61% possession. Crystal Palace average 1 goals per game this season. Crystal Palace average 47% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tottenham Hotspur or Crystal Palace?
Our model rates Tottenham Hotspur as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Tottenham Hotspur wins, 2 draws, 4 Crystal Palace wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11:5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13:8 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Everton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 9 |  Hull City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:17 | 7 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6:14 | 6 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 5 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:14 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.