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Sporting Kansas City vs Austin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Sporting Kansas Cityvs

Austin

Our predictionSporting Kansas City to win

Model score: Low · 30/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
−Sporting Kansas City are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Sporting Kansas City43%

Draw25%

2 · Austin32%

1 · Sporting Kansas CityDraw2 · Austin

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.58+22.3%

BTTSNo2.73+19.8%

1X2Draw3.92+0.5%

1X2Austin3.02+0.3%

1X2Sporting Kansas City2.15-0.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.36Sporting Kansas City

0.97Austin

Over 2.5 goals41%

Both teams to score46%

Recent form

Sporting Kansas CityWLWDD

AustinWLDLW

Team strength rating

Sporting Kansas City

Austin

Most likely scorelines

1-013.2%

1-112.8%

0-09.6%

0-19.4%

2-09.0%

2-18.7%

Match DNA

Sporting Kansas City Austin

Key points

Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Austin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City will be without Blorian O., Wolff, Diego, Johnsen L.B., Mosquera, Reynolds.
Austin will be without Kolmanic.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Sporting Kansas City win2.15Fair (-0.8%)

Double chanceSporting Kansas City or draw—Info

Total goalsUnder 2.52.58Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	10	9	5	1
1	13	13	6	2
2	9	9	4	1
3	4	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 43%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Austin at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Sporting Kansas City. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 2.145. The draw is priced at 3.92. Austin is priced at 3.015.

Sporting Kansas City have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Austin have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 42% possession. Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 43% possession.

The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Austin?

Our model rates Sporting Kansas City as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 13 meetings: 7 Sporting Kansas City wins, 1 draws, 5 Austin wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchKaricSporting Kansas City7.5