Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barcelonavs
Deportivo AlavesThe model puts Barcelona at 83%. The model leans toward Barcelona. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Alaves (1-2-12).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Barcelona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barcelona have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barcelona is priced at 1.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 18 | 6 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barcelona at 83%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Barcelona. Barcelona is priced at 1.1. The draw is priced at 10. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 23.
Barcelona have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Alaves have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barcelona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Alaves have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Alaves average 3 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 52% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barcelona or Deportivo Alaves?
Our model rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 83% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Barcelona wins, 2 draws, 12 Deportivo Alaves wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39:9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23:9 | 21 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:14 | 19 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 16 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:16 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 8 |  Celta | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 9 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 10 |  Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 12 |  Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:13 | 9 |
| 13 |  Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11:12 | 8 |
| 17 |  Racing de Santander | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:25 | 8 |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:17 | 7 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6:18 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.